“The world during the pandemic, where so much was spent on goods and not on services was not a real world” Doug McMillon, CEO, Walmart Inc
Agriculture
“Sunflower oil exporters are reportedly fielding unprecedented call volumes from new customers seeking to replace Black Sea sunflower oil [due to port disruptions]” Market Statement, US National Sunflower Association
“There’s concern around the ability of ongoing supply of sunflower [oil] as it is scarce and no signs that shortages will be eased in the next 12 months” Nick Goddard, CEO, Australian Oilseed Federation
Travel
“Every country is crying out for more airline capacity” Dean Long, CEO, Australian Federation of Travel Agents
“As airlines continue to train staff as fast as they can in an effort to increase capacity in coming months, it is likely this will be counteracted by the effects of the ongoing high prices of crude oil, which we anticipate will result in fare increases” David Galt, CEO, Webjet Ltd
Recession
“And then when you think about near term, well, recession time, it's not an if, it's a when. It's a category [frozen foods] that is doing very well during these times” Stefan Descheemaeker, CEO, Nomad Foods Ltd [Europe’s largest frozen food group of companies inc. Birds Eye]
“What we've seen across time is that giving to churches does not necessarily follow the same patterns as we see in the pressures in the market. Most people who are giving to their local church do not see that as discretionary spend rather a part of their standard budget” Molly Matthews, CEO, Pushpay Holdings Ltd
“It’s a completely different environment [current supply shortages] heading into what could be a potential recession…” John Lawler, CFO, Ford Motor Corporation
Labour Markets
“The other challenge we have today is that where people can get access to Australian visas, generally they’re not working where they need to work, in Sydney and Melbourne…They are being deployed into the regions where there aren’t as many challenges” Phil Reed, CEO, Pizza Hut Australia
ESG
“A moral debate that simmered along for decades has now been settled. How you grow matters” Andrew Yates, CEO, KPMG Australia
Retail & E-Commerce
“We are mindful of the ‘cost of doing business’ challenges across supply and service chains impacting retail sector” Market Statement, Universal Store Holdings Ltd
“It’s an enormous world out there [with only 12% the world’s spending online]” Patrick Collison, CEO, Stripe Inc
Payments
“What's remarkable is that if you look at our highest fee products, and I'll just use U.S. consumer as an example, it's really the Platinum and Gold products, those are actually the products now where the majority of the new people coming into the franchise are millennials and Gen Zers” Jeffrey Campbell, CFO, American Express Co
Financial Markets
“Don’t ever get yourself in trouble where you have to sell something at an inopportune time, keep investing during all periods of time, and you’ll do very well over the longer term. That’s what business is about. The rest of this stuff is just market gyrations that confuses most people” Bruce Flatt, CEO, Brookfield Asset Management
Mortgages
“Whilst dwelling values are likely to see modest declines, strong recent price rises across 2020 and 2021 provide a healthy buffer for existing policies in force. Unemployment remains low and there are low levels of industry non-performing loans” Market Statement, Genworth Mortgage lnsurance Australia Limited
Technology & Cryptocurrency
“Our success [as a sector] means 2.2 percent of the world’s tech unicorns have come from Australia, even though our share of global GDP is just 1.6 percent” Kate Pounder, CEO, Tech Council of Australia
“We appear to be entering a recession after a 10+ year economic boom. A recession could lead to another ‘crypto winter’ and could last for an extended period” Brian Armstrong, CEO, Coinbase Inc
US Economy
“When I look at gas prices at 6 and getting to 7 dollars a gallon - We are on a collision course with time in terms of how the American consumer can continue to spend at the level they are. It’s hard to be optimistic unless there is a plan to get inflation under control” Howard Schultz, CEO, Starbucks Corp
Freight & Logistics
“It’s going to ease in 2023, but it’s not going to go back to 2019…I don’t think we’re going to go back to this overcapacity situation where [freight] rates were very low. Infrastructure, especially in the US, isn’t going to get better overnight, because infrastructure developments take a long time” Tim Scharwath, CEO, DHL
Manufacturing
“There’s just no excuse for Australian domestic gas prices to be as high as they are…We are going to have to expect continued intervention over the coming months” Ben Eade, CEO, Manufacturing Australia
Boats
“Demand [for our propellers] is expected to continue to grow due to increased demand globally. Many [ship]yards booked out to 2023-4” Market Statement, Veem Ltd
For all enquiries please contact enquiries@naos.com.au
Important information: This material has been prepared by NAOS Asset Management Limited (ABN 23 107 624 126, AFSL 273529) (NAOS) for general information purposes only and must not be construed as investment advice. Certain economic, market or company information contained in this material may have been obtained from published sources prepared by third parties. Nothing contained herein should be construed as granting by implication or otherwise, any license or right to use such third party content without the written permission of the owner.
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