The ultimate call over the near term will be whether or not global interest rate will rise and if this will have a negative effect on economic growth and share price returns or vice versa.
An excellent piece on this subject was recently distributed by renowned hedge fund manager James Paulson from Wells Capital Management based in the US. Paulson brings to light that, based on historical economic readings on US consumer confidence levels, when interest rates are below 6% (10-Year Treasury Bond Yields) consumer confidence tends to rise in a highly correlated manner. Read more here: Global Interest Rates; The Next Big Call
